Caravan

8,700 souls of Caravaners in Tijuana as of last night, and the need for policing the Caravan has strained the Tijuana police resources. The Tijuana police arrested 39 Caravaners who tried to rush the Border Wall, and the Border Patrol arrested 42 mostly men who breached the wall into the US in the rush.

On Monday, there were 25 murders in Tijuana, a number described as a “spike” in violence. I don’t know what a normal Monday would be, but the need to administer to the Caravan has obviously caused a problem in addition to feeding and sanitation.

The INS has said that the wait for Amnesty seekers must wait four to six weeks before getting a hearing. Thursday we have a cold rain coming just to add to the misery of those huddled under tents. Many, reportedly hundreds have surrendered themselves to Mexican authorities, to be sent by plane back to their home country.

Several Caravaners interviewed by local stations admitted they were returning to their home countries because they did not realize how difficult it would be to gain entry into the United States. Once the cold rains come, more may abandon their quest, and who knows about other Caravans, which may also get discouraged.

It would be nice to imagine that Caravans in Central America might get discouraged before they even form. Certainly that is the plan!

Meanwhile the economic impact of closing the lanes for five hours Sunday was felt locally. There is a huge mall in San Ysidro, and wealthy Tijuana residents (Yes, many exist) come across for shopping at that mall. The mall has 150 businesses, and cumulatively, they lost $1 million AN HOUR while the Border was shut! Shutting the Border has real economic impact on both sides, but it appears to have had great psychological impact on the Caravan, and this morning there are 22 lanes of traffic open for cars.

That indicates the intelligence in the Caravan says there is zero current interest is rushing the Border and Coyotes are no doubt recruiting among those able to pay $6,000 or more to be led across the Arizona Border.

We Are Being Manipulated

Close your eyes and imagine the Border and I’ll bet a woman’s photo pulling her children up the berm toward the Border Wall will come to mind. It is a Washington Post photo.

Oh, to be certain, she is a genuine Caravan member, but 95% of those rushing the Border yesterday were males, age 16-25.

She was the one put in front to be the sympathetic face, and every news organization jumped to fall in place.

We are being manipulated.

The discussion on the TV last night on ABC, CBS, and PBS was all about the use of tear gas on the approaching hoard at the Border, although the instructions on the use of tear gas at the Border are Obama era administrations instructions, and Obama used tear gas at the Border regularly. Breitbart says Obama administration says at least 80 times since 2010.

Border in Brief

Border in Brief: The count is now 7,000 in Tijuana, 39 were arrested yesterday by the Mexican Police, the Border was shut down for five hours, and Mexico announced they would try to identify the 500 or so who stormed the Border in order to deport them back to their home country. The US Border Patrol fired tear gas and rubber bullets into Mexico to stem the assault.

Good News

Finally, a breakthrough, as the Trump Administration and the incoming Mexican President López Obrador administration, reach an accord known as Remain in Mexico.

It has not yet been reduced to paper, but the outline is clear in that the existing status quo would continue. Instead of being held in US camps which are over full, applicants would remain in Mexico, perhaps working in maquiladoras, which need workers. With room available in US holding, the INS could double its processing. Applicants whose refugee requests are denied would be immediately deported to their home of record.

The impetus for the Mexican agreement was, according to a Washington Post piece, was the movement of the military to the Border and the threat to close the Border…which would wreck the Mexican economy in just weeks.

So far, the Mexican government has not requested any financial assistance from the US.

GOOD news, all around.

A Seething Mass At The Border

The Tijuana encampment held 6,219 souls yesterday, and several thousand are still on the way. The encampment is looking for other shelters in the Tijuana area, because sanitation is currently suspect trending towards unsanitary and soon awful!

The current encampment is in a sports stadium. A small group of 500 under White Flags approached the Border at the Pedestrian Bridge, complaining about the unsanitary conditions for babies caused by a light rain last night. It is going to get colder and wetter, not to mention more crowded.

Give the Mexican governments their due, they are doing their best. Organization is not a mark of Mexican government, but they are throwing their backs into it, lest their citizens also reach as far as the United States Marines backing up every agency. No one wants to see a clash, but people get frustrated, they get angry, and they get moving. The question is, will they move North or South?

We hope South, but must be prepared for North. There are certainly a lot of young, restless workers. Many of heads because many could come back to the jobs they once held. There are always crowds of deportees in Tijuana trying ,to get back into the US.

As I have previously noted, the local record for a Returnee has been deported 17 times! Those locals previously deported 10 or 12 times wouldn’t even make Honorable Mention.

Meanwhile, there is a seething, and very large group gathering very close to our Border. That group could reach almost 10,000 within a week. The 500 tease group was within a stone’s flow yesterday, and the Mexican Police were enough to get them to turn back.

YouTube?

A Pew Research Center Report says that half of adult Americans have learned something new on YouTube.

That is surprising, at least the percentage, but I use YouTube to feed my interest in the Middle Ages, particularly in Britain. The BBC has apparently been as interested as I and has produced a ton of interesting programs. My initial interest had been the result of reading a historical novel based on the Battle of Agincourt by Bernard Cromwell, and I found several really interesting videos of reenactments or commentaries of that famous battle.

For those not familiar with the battle, it was during the 100 Year War between Britain and France. A British army, commanded personally by King Henry V, decimated by dysentery and starvation, was struggling through France, simply trying desperately to get to the French Coast to escape back to Britain. The British Army was shadowed by a massive French Army, not content with letting well enough alone and finally getting between the straggling British Army, and the Port Of Calais. Bad move as it happens, because the French Knights, the creme Of French Aristocracy, mounted on War Horses, faced the WMD of the day, the British Long-bowmen. Vastly outnumbered, the British 5,000 Long-Bowmen could put 60,000 arrows into the air in one minute at a range of more than 200 yards. End of story…but this is the Readers Digest edition, and the Battle was much more interesting.

Anyway, YouTube has many programs on Castles, and Medieval life, and archaeology, and so many interesting subjects more than just How to Get The Best Out Of Your AirPods. (Which I also recommend. Both AirPods, and the YouTube video…ta.)

Run For The Border II

I checked, and the traffic at the border at 2 pm on Monday included a three hour automobile wait, I suspect because we reduced the number of traffic lanes about half, to 17 lanes. Traffic waits at the border are endemic and are an every day occurrence with 27 lanes. Traffic reports every morning announce the wait at the border, and the 2 pm wait is what we usually see in the early morning.

(Some reports say 26 lanes, with 16 now open.)

This traffic information only concerns passenger cars. There is a separate entrance for trucks, and so far I have heard nothing about a slowdown there. The traffic at the passenger car lanes disrupts the flow of shipyard, and office workers who find they can live better for half the overpriced costs of San Diego County. They trade living costs for inconvenience, and most of the time this works.

The ruling by US District Judge Tigar of San Francisco provides that the Caravan currently in Tijuana need not apply solely at San Ysidro, and that may take some pressure off the Caravan members who can sneak in anywhere and apply for asylum, but it would be an added burden to pay thousands to a Coyote.

While Intelligence would likely give the Border Patrol an Alert, I can see the likely approach. The first wave of healthy youth would bring available mattresses and throw them over the razor wire for a second wave of women and children to occupy the Border Patrol, followed by thousands of youth. This Border Rush, if it happens at all is still more likely than sitting in camps for months.

Run For The Border…

The US closed the Border this morning for a few hours and that seriously snarled traffic on the Border for the morning.

We have 26 lanes coming from Tijuana into San Diego, and after closing all lanes for installation of temporary barriers and Concertina Wire, only 15 lanes were reopened. This both provided additional barriers against a Border Crash, but sent a message to the Mexican government. A Border closing would wreck the Tijuana economy in weeks.

Meanwhile, there was Intelligence that a Border Crash of hundreds of illegal immigrants was planned in the near future. Certainly some groups are planning something before they accept defeat and either get jobs in Mexico, or return to their countries of origin.

Many will try a rush and then await their individual attempts with a Coyote to sneak in after the Caravan dissolves, as it certainly will. The pressure on the Caravan, now that it faces certain defeat, is intense. They can’t get across the Border, and they can’t stay. The US can only process 100 applicants a day, so only those who really believe they have a shot at acceptance will try.

Most of the Caravan are only economic refugees seeking a better job in the US. Rain is scheduled for the weekend, and that will add to the misery of the Caravan, making a Rush or two more likely soon unless the massive US preparations discourage them. That depends upon how successful the Caravan’s Intelligence and media have penetrated the core of the Caravan, with knowledge of what is actually the facts on the ground.

The Brakes Have Been Applied

As more members of the Caravan arrive, 800 so far according to local TV stations, violence has broken out between local Tijuana residents and members of the Caravan. One Tijuana Policeman was stabbed, the Tijuana residents threw bottles and the Caravan threw rocks.

San Diego and Tijuana think of themselves a single Metropolis, with as much cooperation as is possible. There is even a special entry to the Tijuana airport on the San Diego side. If the president actually closes the border the pressure on Tijuana will be intense in just one day.

Looking at videos of the initial members of the Caravan, it is obvious that the members are mostly teenagers. Crowded teenagers, tired, angry and hungry is a formula for unrest.

Our government has no incentive to assist in this looming disaster, and volunteer groups will soon tire of feeding and housing the unruly horde. The Mexican government has the same sort of Field Hospitals, Field Kitchens and huge housing tents that we have, although certainly not in the same quantity. Mexico would do well to get their troops in Tijuana, and quickly.

This mess is going to turn out badly for Mexico, and the worse it gets, the greater the pressure on Caravans not to even begin. Caravans didn’t begin just this year, they have been going on for more than a decade.

The brakes have been applied.

The Press loses

The fight between the president and the press over yanking a Press Pass awaits a judicial decision, but whatever the decision, the president will win.

The president, and the White House Spokeswoman need only ignore the press. If there is a White House Judicial loss, there is no law saying a president must address a question with an answer. In fact there is nothing to say there must be a press room, and certainly not even a press room in the White House.

If the White House simply ignores all questions until CNN assigns someone other than Jim Acosta, the president wins the argument.

This is a fight between two unpopular entities, but the press is the most despised. Even if they win, they lose.