I am no authority on tsunamis, but I have read several books, written several published columns, collected first-hand reports of the 1957 tsunami at Kalihiwai, Kauai from survivors and own a Hawaiian PBS video documentary of that event. That is at least as much as anyone on this blog can claim. Lets just say I have an abiding interest because Kauai is my second home and I will be there again in mere weeks. A MAJOR tsunami on Hawaii is long overdue…not that they can be predicted but there is an interesting pattern against which it can be said Hawaii is overdue, and that is remarked upon yearly by every Hawaiian TV station.
My point, however was none of that. My posts during the day will display that I accepted the predictions — right up until the measurements proved that the predictions were wrong.
Overstated.
They were, of course, computer-generated predictions. The one claim to fame that computers have is not that they predict accurately, but that they compute quickly — the accuracy is dependent upon the programmers software assumptions.
NOAA presumes to be able to predict the time and the power of tsunamis — of course after the causal event and through embedded ocean buoys and floor pressure monitors. (To be fair, there are more of those to the north of Hawaii than there are to the south, so I would expect their accuracy to be better to the north.)
But, their predictions were wrong. They predicted that the first wave would reach the Big Island at 1:06 pm our time…and CNN had cameras stationed to record the event. When nothing visible happened they cut away to Chile about 20 minutes after the predicted event, and returned later with a voice only announcement that the event had taken place but was so small as to defy visuals of it.
There will be a hot wash-up.
Followed by analysis.
But as the event indicates, and as the IPCC kerfuffle also tracks, in every case there is a prediction greater than the event. There is a warm bias in the IPCC software. There is a early bias in the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center software. There is a amplitude bias in the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center software.
Some day, long after we are all gone, the software will be perfected. That day is not today. It is too early to worship the computer.
HAL is not in charge, here.
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