The Republican “Problem”

The Sunday Chris Matthews show defined the Republican players, but without defining the dilemma.

The Republicans are a party without a single purpose.

I would argue that the Democrats share a common goal – raiding the treasury. They argue a bit about division of the spoils, but that is after winning the election and opening the vault doors. Consequently, they run tough elections, but manage poorly.

(The most recent bush second administration is evidence that Republicans can raid the treasury, and the Clinton administration is evidence that Democrats can manage – but I am just discussing general electoral philosophy.)

The Republicans have a different problem. They have huge divisions among the base, and their fights are before the election. It is the Christian Right vs. the Economic Right.

The Matthews show featured this obvious division. The Christian Right calls Sarah Palin, Glen Beck, and Mike Huckabee among its communicators.  The Economic Right calls on Pawlenty, Mitt Romney and George Will as its communicators.

(Rush was once in this camp, but now trends toward the Christian right – I remember when he didn’t concentrate so heavily on the religious message he has more recently adopted. In the end he is the best communicator and can support either camp once the conservatives have sorted it out, but his main theme is anti-liberal, so either camp can get his support.)

The light has always been on the economic message, and the heat on the religious message. When properly combined – as it was in Ronald Reagan – it is an impossible combination to beat, but getting the oil and water to emulsify is a problem. Reagan talked religion, but acted economic.

The Matthews show identified a subset of people – the Southern Republican, and named Jebb Bush and Haley Barber in that group. In my opinion, those are not solidly in either the religious or the economic camps but able to work with either.

Two people the Matthews show didn’t categorize are Newt Gingrich and Bobby Jindal.

Newt is a politician with feet in both camps. He is by far the best politician, but has trouble with the religious right because of his alley-cat morals. His morals would be less of a hindrance in the general election, because attacks from the Democrats who supported Bill Clinton would be visible, and indefensible hypocrisy.

Jindhal has not been able to get traction, but he has plenty of time. He needs seasoning, but both he and Jeb Bush have time. Jindal has education, and a good reputation of state management, and experience as a Congressman, but he needs polish with his message.

In these mid-term elections, it is simply a referendum on the current administration – and, as usual it is found wanting but in unusually large terms. In the next election, it will be a contest of personalities AND messages.

Long way to go. This mid-term election can be phoned in, but the next one…