Robotics, Retirement and Unemployment

It is not a new idea, mechanization, but it is getting highly accelerated by, of all things, the military.

Last night’s NBC news announced an effort to get military retirement costs under control. It is overdue. The military retirement costs 50 BILLION dollars a year, and that is unsustainable.

The US citizens HATE the “draft” (so do I!), and the citizenry would never stand still for “Universal Military Training” (i would not either) but the Powers That Be have supported a system that gives them what they want — a highly trained civilian core of military-trained people.

They did, and do that with a National Guard and really good recruiting packages. Then, they discourage retirement by paying below-market wages that gives skilled individuals an incentive to leave the service.

With large fighting forces, we have larger retirement forces.

Enter mechanization — robotics. The most obvious is the increasing drone military and civilian fleet, but increasing Da Vinci medical operations, and coming, Big Dog, a go anywhere ammunition carrier and eventually robotic soldiers.

We have a drone that can land on an aircraft carrier without any pilot control, and unmanned helicopters that can take off a ship, search ahead for mines and return to the ship with no more command than “Go!”

Mechanism is rampant, and growing. Obamacare will require that employers provide medical insurance if they have more than 50 employees and work more than 30 hours. Initially, businesses are cutting such employees to under 29 hours, but as pressures increase — robotics.

You have seen the robots making cars — do you think robots can’t make burgers? Those NYC fast food workers striking for double their current pay remind me of how I reacted when I first saw a sign outside the Gay and Robinson Sugar Plantation on Kauai more than a decade ago. The sign read: “Home to the highest paid agriculture workers in the world.

My reaction was — that company is going out of business.

It did. I hated that, because I squired so many island-visiting friends around the plantation that the company knew me by first name, and only charged my guests. It was fascinating! I loved the company because, in addition to being the last sugar plantation on the island, the Robinson family money supported the tiny island of Ni’ihau, which permitted almost 100 Hawaiians to live pretty much as they always have.

(As an aside, the Hawaiians on Ni’ihau collect tiny (really tiny) multi-colored sea shells — so rare and only on that island that an entire family can only collect a baby-food jar of shells each year. Before the family can produce a necklace, the family uses a hand dentist drill to make the holes and the family breaks two out of three shells. The necklaces, called Ni’ihau shell lei, are historical among natives, and so valuable that “Aunties” are buried in them to keep families from arguing over them. They are rare, but those who know, know. My wife and I can count on First Class service everywhere in airplanes, hotels and fine restaurants. Tourists think they are just cheap Puka Beads, but Hawaiian Airlines Stews and  Maitre d eyes light up. I have no idea how the Robinson family can continue to support the island.)

Those sugarcane plantation workers now join the ranks of pineapple field workers in unemployment lines, bragging about how much money they once made.

Employers always face economic pressure from labor costs, but there are only so many things an employer can do. Robotics solves lots of problems — pay, vacations, unions, medical costs, and yes, retirement.

How we handle a growing unemployed and unemployable population, replaced by mechanism robotics?

Beats me!

New School, Perhaps the Same Old Problems

At some point my granddaughter is going to meet with her son’s teachers and she won’t get to ask a lot of questions, but if I had one question to ask to each one it would be this: “Do you have a degree in the subject you are teaching?”

It is really a Yes/No answer. If it gets a lot of discussion, the you know the answer is “No.”

A degree in the subject matter is single most important preparation a teacher can have. (A Degree in “Education” is the most worthless degree on a college campus.)

If I could ask the Principal one question, it would be: “Did you have a completely free hand in selecting teachers, or were union-rules based on seniority part of the equation?”

Once again, this is a simple question that can be answered in one sentence. If you get a discussion you know the answer — the Principal had to select not the best, but those with the most seniority.

Teachers usually get to have first choice on a new school based on seniority, but that means that young teachers who may well be better don’t get the plum jobs, and a new Magnet school is a plum job.

The system is called “post and bid” — which means the openings in the district are posted and the teachers “bid” — based on seniority.

It is the same system used by Stewardesses on airlines, and why the Hawaii flights are called “Hag Flights” — the Stews are all 50 or even 60 years old! If you want young eye candy, take Singapore or Korean Airlines.

In the teaching profession, competence is key and that is not a component of seniority.

This new school is a Magnet School, not a Charter school. Both are public schools but Magnet schools are more subject to union rules.

Needless to say, parents are so busy with their day -to-day life they don’t know enough about the Education Industry to even as the right questions. Here is what we know: There are about 330,000 teachers in California, and firing bad ones can take five years even if the teacher is charged with molestation — much less simple incompetence.

Simple Law of Averages says that in a population of 330,000, some percentage will go stark-raving mad, not to mention the number that will simply be incompetent. In the past 10 years, with a population of 330,000, fewer than 100 have been fired. The rest have been entered into he “Dance of the Lemons,” where incompetence is simply transferred from school to school.

In a system like this, the Law of Entropy takes over, and the system grinds to a halt — as bad teachers remain their total number grows, and the good teachers quit because the atmosphere become intolerable.

We are there. California stands 47th overall when measured by the US Department of Education in combined math, science, writing and reading.

As a graduate scientist and engineer, with 14 years and 6,000 classroom hours teaching computer science at the undergraduate and graduate university level, I will track my great-grandson’s progress.  (Core Adjunct Professor of Computer Science.)

I could be the schools worst nightmare if the school falters.

Quick Hits

The British government has FINALLY agreed to honor one of the most important individuals in Western history, the hero of the breaking of the Nazi codes at Bletchley Park.

His name was Alan Turing, and his genius was remarkable.

His genius led the efforts, and gave us modern computers, but his homosexuality led the British government to chemically castrate him, and that led to his suicide by eating a cyanide-laced apple at age 41.

All western civilization owes him a deep, deep debt of gratitude.

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Helen Thomas died today. She was a cantankerous woman who unfortunately looked a lot like a female Bob Filner in her old age, which caused people to overlook her accomplishments.

There is a great interest in the proposed (or supposed) iWatch. I am certain that Apple Fanboys will snap them up, but I’ll pass.

Because everyone should own at least one item of jewelry that is exquisite, and men’s options are limited, I wear a Rolex Presidential watch. It has nothing to do with keeping time, because a Timex keeps just as good time. No, it is jewelry, and was a celebration of my selection as president and CEO of a Los Angeles TV station.

I think I’ll pass on an iWatch, if the rumors of that watch ever becomes hardware. (But, as a certified Geek, I’ll still lust after one, and envy those who have one.)

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Last year California authorized driverless (autonomous) cars, and San Francisco has a number of driverless Google cars running about.

Google autonomous cars have driven hundreds of thousands of miles, and the only accident was when a required human rider took over the controls because he thought the software was doing something wrong. Forensics proved the human was the one who was mistaken.

Google uses Toyota Prius and Lexus  RX models, but a new autonomous vehicle has joined the mix on Northern California roads, a diesel BMW 300 series, and it is being tested by Bosch.

I attended an autonomous automobile “race” in Victorville, California in 2009 – it was actually a test in the desert of how those cars did in simulated city driving. Bosch had a VW Jetta rigged so that all of the test equipment was under the skin. Stanford University won the $2 million prize that day even though every car “failed”– the Stanford Jettas did best. (I think my Engineering Ph.D friend and I were the only people in the stands.)

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There is not much to look forward to but chaos and delay in the Detroit bankruptcy front.  The Vallejo and Orange County bankruptcy proceedings went on for years, and this will last longer still.

Bankruptcies are slow and ponderous, at best.  I turned around a computer company for the Federal Bankruptcy Court, and even a company takes years, so I imagine a city the size of Detroit is REALLY difficult. There are a lot of rice bowls to be broken.

Dave Bing has been the Mayor of Detroit for several years. A Democrat, and a former NBA player, he did as good a job as was possible considering the hand he was dealt. I have followed his plight, and admired his skill, but he was saddled with existing union contracts and a recalcitrant City Council and union leaders.

Only a Federal Judge can unscramble this egg. It will not be easy because the city has lost almost 70% of its residents, leading to block after block of abandoned houses. Several years ago you could buy a house for under $500. The city has about 80,000 blighted or abandoned buildings

The Washington Post has a column suggesting several solutions that include making Detroit a tax-free zone to attract business (and therefore jobs), to giving Green Cards to foreigners to move there. Foreign money, entrepreneurship and dilution of the existing criminal element might make the suburbs livable again.

The turnaround manager is an African-American lawyer who, in a city with an 83% African-American population (and 18% unemployment), has street cred — and with his experience turning around Chrysler, has cred in financial markets.

I wish him and Dave Bing, luck. Other cities will follow, and we need a big city template.

Quoted Without Comment

 

“Every city in America has this problem; there is no urban community that doesn’t have this problem,” says Dunford, San Diego’s EMS medical director  and professor emeritus of emergency medicine at the UC San Diego School of Medicine. “We have identified at least 1,000 people who call an ambulance six or more times a year. We had 130 people who called more than 20 times last year, generating more than 2,000 transports.”

Journal of Emergency Services, 2012

Staircase Humor

Staircase Humor is a term that is used in writing to describe the great line you should have used earlier in the day – it comes from a French (appropriate) term about remembering the humor as you climb the staircase at night.

In this case, I have just remember something the French do well – beside wine, cheese, and Joy Perfume. Racing engines.

As strange as it may seem to Americans who think the best engines are built by someone else in their minds, the fastest racing cars in the world are powered for Red Bull Racing, by Renault. Yes, Renault. And those Formula One engines regularly beat the vaunted Ferrari Racing team, to my disgust I admit.

In endurance racing, the Peugeot-built racing cars regularly beat the terrific Audi team for years at the 24 Hours of Le Mans (again, to my disgust), until economics forced the Peugeot team to stop their racing program just a few years ago.

Credit where it is due. The French build some fantastic racing cars. That they also cannot build a decent street car is another subject.

Don’t Tell The Choo-Choo Lobby

Please do not tell the Choo-Choo lobby about the new bus and trolley stop covered today in the Washington Post. It is in Arlington, is open to wind, rain and cold, but covered and semi-protects as many as 15 people — at a cost of only $1 million.

http://wapo.st/11AxZ5q

Get a Rope!

A “Bail-In?”

So what is the opposite of a bail-out?

A bail-in, as was demonstrated by the Cyprus kerfuffle. This exercise in stupidity is a perfect example of “unintended consequences.”

A fiasco of the first order, and this concept has no parents. Germany denies its their idea. Cyprus denies it was their idea.

Basically, the European Union was willing to bail out nearly bankrupt Cyprus with $13 billion if, and only Cyprus came up with $6 billion, and someone, some unnamed someone came up with the concept of seizing about 10% of bank deposits over €100,000, and about 6% of deposits under that amount.

Everyone, except the IMF and EU came apart at the seams…markets dove worldwide, the Cypriot legislature had to stop ATM withdrawals and extended the opening of the banks until Tuesday just to stop a run on the banks. There is a rumor that Russia will step in since their people have the largest accounts – Cyprus has large natural gas deposits and Gazprom is highly visible.

The fact that the Cypriot legislature stopped the seizure may ease the bank run, but I would not trust the bank ANYWHERE in Europe. The very concept must concern anyone I in Spain, Portugal, Greece, or Italy.

Next time the Troika of the IMF, the European Central Bank and the European Commission may not give warning.

Remember when FDR seized all of the gold currency?

OK, I don’t either, not yet having reached teen years, but I read the history books. So should you.

Choo-Choo Lobby Strikes! (Again!)

The San Diego U-T has an editorial supporting the quick repair and return of a Light Rail system between Escondido and Oceanside — to which I replied:

Why, pray tell?

Yesterday the Manager of the Transit System was quoted as saying that running the buses was cheaper than running the train, and today one of the passengers said that his trip would actually be faster on the bus.

Other than that, the train is noisier, interrupts traffic flow, has not met rider projections and cost four times its projected cost!

“Another such victory and we are undone!”

I understand that there is a Choo-Choo Lobby that constantly prattles about “Light Rail” — but there is no need for the Editorial Board to join in — the Sprinter is, like the California Center for the Arts, an expensive White Elephant, growing more expensive by the day in an economic climate that simply cannot justify the expense.

You Are Kidding Me, Right?

I was watching Shawn Styles, who does weather on Ch. 8 in San Diego, and he was doing a piece on measuring and reducing your “carbon footprint.”

It immediately struck me as the former CEO of a TV station in Los Angeles, and Chairman of a TV Broadcasting system, that damn few things in most people’s lives have larger carbon footprints than TV systems!

Think of the size of a TV station, with multiple “sets” and the lighting required, not to mention the heating and cooling systems. Think of the people who drive there, and back throughout the day, and their car pollution. Think of the transmitter site — it takes huge electrical punch to distribute a local signal — and think of the power consumed to build a rocket and the fuel it takes to launch satellites to distribute the signal.

Ch. 8 (just like all stations) has multiple enormous trucks for remote broadcast, and even a helicopter — probably the least efficient aerial vehicle type known to man.

Multiply that imagining times all of the TV stations in not just this city, but the state, and then the nation.

Now, think of the number of TV sets in this country — probably close to a half a billion. The cumulative amount of power drawn by TV sets is enormous!

And Shawn, using all those power-using assets, wants me to be concerned about my washer and refrigerator?

‘Gimme a break!

OMG! Snow In Boston!

Ahhhh…here is a news flash! It is snowing in the North East!

O.K., it is Winter, and snow in the North East is not usually news, but it apparently is a slow news day in the North East.

Now, I am not a big fan of snow, except on slopes serviced by ski lifts, but as I recall from my dating days when I had time off from the Naval Academy and went to my now wife’s home near Cape Cod, it snowed in the Winter. Sometimes it snowed a LOT!

What I don’t recall is all the angst. My wife’s father went out in it every day to check on the condition of the vacation homes he maintained during the Winter – they were the homes his custom home construction crews built during the Summer.

(I also remember he paid his people during the Winter by mortgaging his home, then he repaid the mortgage during the Summer.)

I find it interesting that it looks like Big Bear is getting about the same amount of snow at about the same time. Jean and I used to ski Big Bear when we could not get to Utah – Big Bear is a lot like sex – just as there is no such thing as bad sex, there is no such thing as bad ski slopes, but Big Bear is about as bad as it gets, Oh, the slopes are fine, but California “snow” – locally called “California Crud” for a reason, is pretty bad. It is, however, better than nothing, and it is 90 minutes away!

My favorite is Brian Head, Utah…a small ski area where I once saw four fresh tracks in fresh powder on one run – and all four were MINE! It is a quiet, primarily Mormon area filled with kind people who, when a Snowboarder knocks you down, he helps you up and apologizes! No night life there, just ski until you drop, and there is nothing left for nightlife. If you want nightlife, ski Whistler/Blackcomb in British Columbia – we did for two weeks. Absolute heaven, but tough sledding fo California ski buffs – the Canadian slopes are TOUGH!

But, I digress…two feet of snow, the same stuff that paralyzes Boston, is called a “Good ski day” in Big Bear, and I see shots of people crowding the slopes of Big Bear in spite of the mass killer on the loose.

Hey, you can’t have a murderer ruin fresh snow on the slopes!

I saw a TV interview of the Sheriff discussing the murderer on the mountain, and he was asked if there was any panic? He said, “These are hardy people, and most of them are armed.” Yep! And the activity in the town and on the slopes was going on as normal – unlike Boston, where the Governor has decreed all traffic off the streets by 5 pm.

I did note the TV reporter from Connecticut remarking on the coming snowfall and the concerns of the Connecticut residents, said she was from Winnipeg and she didn’t know what all the fuss was about.

Me either!

(Slow news day!)