Why I Ignore Moderates or Independents in My Analysis

I ignore moderates (or Independents) in most analysis, because they are not predictable – they are less philosophical and more attuned to liberality when moderates see no price they must pay, and more attuned to conservatives when their self-interest is threatened and they see a personal cost to them.

In extremis, cortex is the most important feature. In racing, we KNOW what our opponents general reaction to a crises will be; in flying, almost all landing patterns are similar so that if a pilot is ill he doesn’t have to think, he can simply respond as he has hundreds of times; in diving submarines, the sequence NEVER varies – and if the sounds and angles varied I awakened from deep sleep INSTANTLY.

Since no one knows where that tipping point is for “independents” and “moderates” – I can’t comment upon them as a group but they are the single most important voting bloc.

Surely, that same grouping of “moderates”, more or less, happens in most countries including Spain, Britain, Portugal, Ireland, etc. – and the same debate that goes on here between the Money Tree People and the Pragmatists, went on there. The “moderates” in each of those countries took the easy route of spending some else’s money with abandon. It is the easy, compassionate thing to do – there are always the poor, the hungry, the lame/blind etc. that almost everyone agrees upon, and it is just so easy to add millions of other “less fortunate” with the stroke of a pen!

I have remarked before on the Greek problem – it started with early retirement for coal workers at age 50 because of their hazardous working conditions. Then the definition of “hazardous working conditions” grew, and grew, and grew like Topsy with a single stroke of a pen, until it included all Hairdressers because of fumes from chemical dye, and even DJs and Talk Show Hosts because of the potential for germs in their microphones.

Obviously, what started as a liberal compassion measure, grew no doubt with the help of moderates and independents in Greece to a point where, I suspect, even liberals in this country would say, “Basta!” If the initial law tried to include hairdressers and DJs, even the so-called “moderates” might have objected – but being moderate also means less attentive and less passionate…until Greece faces ruin.

Independents have the potential for correcting the errors of liberals and conservatives – and they also have the power to double-down the mistakes.

In the US, they are the largest group of voters. Some sub-portions are simply ignorant of the issues and a LARGE percentage make up their minds IN THE VOTING CENTER! Others are influenced by ads, or temperature, humidity or the phase of the moon. Some are influenced by any number of unpredictable (and to me, unfathomable) influences.

All ads are aimed at moderates, or to influence liberals and conservatives to generate more than their vote (which is predictable), such as to get them to influence their neighbors, or give money, or…